Markets — oil, inflation and rates

How settled this was, morning by morning

Each column is one appearance, in date order. Taller means more settled. Click any column to jump straight to that item in its edition.

18 appearances across 12 editions

1. Monday, July 13, 2026 · No. 001

   Oil rises as tech stocks and bonds reprice risk

   Brent near $78.22 (+3%). Nasdaq futures down; South Korea's semiconductor-heavy KOSPI fell 7.6%. Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest since February 2025 on tightening expectations. June inflation data lands Tuesday, then major bank and tech earnings.

   Markets Confirmed matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
2. Tuesday, July 14, 2026 · No. 022

   Oil Shock Complicates Today's Inflation Report

   Oil topped $80 after a ~9% Monday surge; markets await June CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, with Fed Chair Warsh testifying. Economists expected headline inflation to ease from May's 4.2%, but renewed Gulf fighting may keep that relief from lasting into July.

   Markets Confirmed matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
3. Thursday, July 16, 2026 · No. 024

   Technology Shares Weaken as Oil Keeps Inflation Risk Alive

   Tech stocks fell despite strong semiconductor earnings; South Korea's market dropped sharply and Nasdaq futures weakened on AI-valuation concerns. Brent traded near $84.50 (~+11% for the week). Softer inflation reports eased rate-hike bets, but higher energy could reverse that.

   Markets Confirmed matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
4. Saturday, August 1, 2026 · No. 002

   Bond markets are sending a different message than stocks

   Even as tech shares strengthened, longer-dated Treasury yields hit multiyear highs on worries that elevated oil could prolong inflation and keep rates high. The tension: AI earnings support equity prices while energy-driven inflation raises financing costs.

   Markets B1 · Confirmed matched in the headline on /\bmarkets?\b/i
5. Sunday, August 2, 2026 · No. 003

   Oil-price relief is vulnerable to one failed negotiation

   The market is pricing hopes that renewed attacks are avoided — optimism that depends on diplomacy rather than normalized shipping.

   Markets B2 · Probably True matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
6. Sunday, August 2, 2026 · No. 003

   Markets face strong AI expectations against expensive capital

   Technology enthusiasm remained high while energy prices and bond yields threatened borrowing costs.

   Markets B1 · Confirmed matched in the headline on /\bmarkets?\b/i
7. Monday, August 3, 2026 · No. 004

   Oil falls roughly 7%

   The decline reflected expectations that diplomacy could improve energy flows.

   Markets A1 · Confirmed matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
8. Monday, August 3, 2026 · No. 004

   U.S.–Iran negotiations become the market's primary variable

   Traders are reacting to every signal from Washington, Tehran and Gulf intermediaries.

   Markets B2 · Probably True matched in the headline on /\bmarkets?\b/i
9. Monday, August 3, 2026 · No. 004

   Markets should not confuse cheaper oil with solved inflation

   A few days of lower crude cannot immediately reverse transportation, insurance or previously-contracted input-cost increases.

   Markets B1 · Confirmed matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
10. Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · No. 005

    Oil drops another 5% on Iran diplomacy

    Brent settled around $79.36 and WTI near $75.77.

    Markets A1 · Confirmed matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
11. Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · No. 005

    Market risk is shifting from war shock to 'peace-premium' overconfidence

    If a Hormuz agreement fails, oil can reverse violently.

    Markets B2 · Probably True matched in the headline on /\bmarkets?\b/i
12. Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · No. 006

    Markets face a paradox: a settlement could crush oil while institutionalizing Iranian control

    A Hormuz deal could lower prices even as it entrenches Iranian control and fees.

    Markets B2 · Probably True matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
13. Thursday, August 6, 2026 · No. 007

    Oil rebounds sharply

    Brent settled around $82.49 after the proposed Iranian shipping restrictions emerged.

    Markets A1 · Confirmed matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
14. Thursday, August 6, 2026 · No. 007

    Petrobras profits benefit from the Middle East oil shock

    The company posted one of its strongest profit periods as high crude boosted producers.

    Markets B2 · Probably True matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
15. Friday, August 7, 2026 · No. 008

    Brent closes higher at about $83.55

    Uncertainty over who controls Hormuz and whether U.S.-linked vessels may pass kept a risk premium in crude.

    Markets A1 · Confirmed matched in the headline on /\bbrent\b/i
16. Friday, August 7, 2026 · No. 008

    AI infrastructure stocks are producing differentiated results

    Investors are increasingly rewarding firms that can demonstrate actual traffic and cloud demand.

    Markets B2 · Probably True matched in the headline on /\bstocks\b/i
17. Sunday, August 9, 2026 · No. 010

    Oil rises about 3%

    Brent moved to around $86 as markets recognized reopening was less imminent than assumed.

    Markets A1 · Confirmed matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i
18. Monday, August 10, 2026 · No. 011

    Oil jumps as investors reprice Hormuz risk

    Brent rose more than 4% as expectations of an immediate reopening diminished; energy strengthened while parts of tech, utilities and real estate weakened — with U.S. inflation data due this week.

    Markets A1 · Confirmed matched in the headline on /\boil\b/i